Stage 7: Risk and Impact Analysis

Stage 7: Risk and Impact Analysis

Stage 7 culminates PASTA by analyzing the business risk and impact of successfully executed attacks. This stage transforms technical attack scenarios into business risk metrics that enable informed decision-making about security investments. By connecting attacks to business objectives defined in Stage 1, PASTA completes the circle from business context through technical analysis and back to business impact.

Calculate risk scores for each identified attack scenario by combining likelihood and impact assessments. Likelihood considers threat actor capability and motivation, vulnerability exploitability and accessibility, existing control effectiveness, and environmental factors. Impact evaluates business objective disruption, financial losses both direct and indirect, regulatory and compliance consequences, and reputation and customer trust damage.

Prioritize risks based on their scores and relationship to critical business objectives. High-risk attacks threatening core business objectives demand immediate attention. Medium risks might be addressed through planned improvements. Low risks could be accepted or addressed through general security enhancements. This prioritization ensures security efforts focus on what matters most to the business.

Develop risk mitigation strategies balancing security effectiveness with business constraints. For each high-priority risk, identify potential mitigations including their implementation costs, operational impacts, and risk reduction effectiveness. Present options to business stakeholders, enabling informed decisions about security investments. Some risks might be mitigated through technical controls, others through process changes, and some might be transferred through insurance or accepted as business risks.