Analyzing Attack Scenarios

Transform your brainstormed threats into concrete attack scenarios. This analysis helps understand how attacks might unfold and what controls could prevent or detect them. For each significant threat, create a simple narrative describing the attack from start to finish.

Consider a SQL injection threat against your e-commerce site. The scenario might unfold as follows: An attacker identifies a search function that doesn't properly sanitize input. They craft malicious SQL queries to probe the database structure. Upon discovering the users table, they extract customer emails and password hashes. If passwords are weakly hashed, they crack them offline and attempt credential reuse on other sites. This narrative reveals multiple control opportunities—input validation, parameterized queries, strong password hashing, and anomaly detection.

Evaluate each scenario's likelihood based on your specific context. Public-facing applications face constant automated attacks, making common vulnerabilities highly likely to be discovered. Internal applications might face fewer opportunistic attacks but could be specifically targeted by insiders. Consider your threat actors' capabilities and motivations when assessing likelihood. A nation-state might invest significant resources in zero-day exploits, while criminals typically use known vulnerabilities.

Assess the potential impact of each successful attack. Go beyond immediate technical consequences to consider business implications. Customer data theft might trigger breach notifications, regulatory fines, lawsuits, and reputational damage. Service disruption could mean lost revenue and customer defection. Intellectual property theft might compromise competitive advantage. This comprehensive impact assessment helps prioritize which threats deserve the most attention.